Helmond Sport 1–2 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dordrecht

10/24/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 13GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Helmond Sport47%

×Draw23%

Dordrecht30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.36

Helmond Sport

1.75

Dordrecht

1.36

Helmond Sport creates 29% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

1.39

creates per match

1.22

1.51

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.39

Dordrecht

1.22

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.51

Dordrecht

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

70%

Helmond Sport or Dordrecht

77%

Draw or Dordrecht

53%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

25%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

83%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

52%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

25%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

74%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

39%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

61%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

47%

level

23%

Dordrecht scores more

30%

Helmond Sport at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff