Dordrecht 4–0 Helmond Sport: Result & Stats

Dordrecht

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Helmond Sport

11/10/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 14M-Scores Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Dordrecht49%

×Draw24%

Helmond Sport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DordrechtExpected goals in this matchHelmond Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Dordrecht

1.75

Helmond Sport

1.25

Dordrecht creates 40% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

1.55

creates per match

0.90

1.59

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Dordrecht

1.55

Helmond Sport

0.90

allows per match

Dordrecht

1.59

Helmond Sport

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordrecht ↓

Helmond Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dordrecht or draw

73%

Dordrecht or Helmond Sport

76%

Draw or Helmond Sport

51%

Winning margin

Dordrecht wins by 2+

27%

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dordrecht 1+ goals

83%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

52%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

25%

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

71%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

36%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

64%

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordrecht at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordrecht attack 1.55 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + Dordrecht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dordrecht scores more

49%

level

24%

Helmond Sport scores more

27%

Dordrecht at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dordrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff