Helmond Sport 0–0 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Den Bosch

12/6/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 18GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Helmond Sport46%

×Draw24%

Den Bosch31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.35

Helmond Sport

1.70

Den Bosch

1.35

Helmond Sport creates 26% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

1.39

creates per match

1.19

1.51

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.39

Den Bosch

1.19

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.51

Den Bosch

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

69%

Helmond Sport or Den Bosch

76%

Draw or Den Bosch

54%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

24%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

82%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

51%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

24%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

74%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

39%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

60%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

46%

level

24%

Den Bosch scores more

31%

Helmond Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff