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Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
2/2/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Den Bosch52%
×Draw23%
Helmond Sport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.81
Helmond Sport
1.20

Den Bosch creates 51% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 147 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.67
Helmond Sport
0.90

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.50
Helmond Sport
1.95

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
75%
Den Bosch or Helmond Sport
77%
Draw or Helmond Sport
48%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
29%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
84%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
54%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
27%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
70%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
34%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
67%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Den Bosch scores more
52%
level
23%
Helmond Sport scores more
25%

Den Bosch at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 0–0 Helmond Sport

Den Bosch and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion De Vliert in 's-Hertogenbosch.