Hellas Verona 3–3 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.05

Hellas Verona

1.07

Torino

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

0.80

creates per match

1.05

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Torino

1.05

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Torino

1.34

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

65%

Hellas Verona or Torino

70%

Draw or Torino

64%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

14%

Torino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

66%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

29%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

9%

Torino 1+ goals

65%

Torino 2+ goals

28%

Torino 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

51%

Torino (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Torino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Torino defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Torino attack 1.05 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

36%

level

30%

Torino scores more

35%

Hellas Verona at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Cristian Ansaldi

Torino · M

8.2

Match Events

35'

Sofyan Amrabat

36'

Cristian Ansaldi↳ Simone Verdi

40'

Koray Günter

46'

Valerio Verre← Mattia Zaccagni

46'

Mariusz Stępiński← Samuel Di Carmine

52'

Gleison Bremer

54'

Alex Berenguer

61'

Cristian Ansaldi

63'

Giampaolo Pazzini← Sofyan Amrabat

65'

Miguel Veloso

69'

Giampaolo PazziniPenalty

73'

Andrea Belotti← Alex Berenguer

76'

Valerio Verre

78'

Saša Lukić← Simone Verdi

84'

Mariusz Stępiński↳ Davide Faraoni

86'

Soualiho Meïté← Daniele Baselli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasTorino

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots16

6Corners3

20Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots16

7On Target8

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

358Total Passes337

240Accurate Passes234

67%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls21

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Serie A: Hellas Verona 3–3 Torino

Hellas Verona and Torino drew 3-3 in Serie A on December 15, 2019.

Goals: Cristian Ansaldi (36', 61'), Alex Berenguer (54'), Giampaolo Pazzini (69' pen), Valerio Verre (76'), Mariusz Stępiński (84').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.

Hellas Verona vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Hellas Verona 3–3 Torino