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Hellas Verona vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
M. Mancosu 68'
A. La Mantia 45+1'
10/5/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 7Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hellas Verona39%
×Draw26%
Lecce36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.39
Lecce
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.60
Lecce
1.44

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.20
Lecce
1.18

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
64%
Hellas Verona or Lecce
74%
Draw or Lecce
61%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
18%
Lecce wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
75%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
40%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
16%
Lecce 1+ goals
73%
Lecce 2+ goals
38%
Lecce 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
52%
Lecce (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.60 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lecce attack 1.44 + Hellas Verona defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
39%
level
26%
Lecce scores more
36%

Hellas Verona at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Seung-Woo Lee
29'
Fabio Eguelfi
39'
K. Cissé← Ryder Matos
45+1'
A. La Mantia↳ M. Mancosu
53'
Manuel Scavone
56'
M. Zaccagni← Lee Seung-Woo
64'
Jacopo Petriccione
68'
M. Mancosu↳ A. Tabanelli
74'
A. Ragusa← F. Eguelfi
82'
Simone Palombi
84'
S. Pettinari← A. La Mantia
84'
M. Armellino← M. Scavone
86'
Santiago Colombatto
89'
R. Fiamozzi← A. Tabanelli
90'
Biagio Meccariello

Possession

60%Hellas

Shots

18Hellas

Statistics

HellasLecce
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots7
14Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots7
5On Target6
13Off Target1
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls14
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Lecce

Lecce beat Hellas Verona 2-0 in Serie B on October 5, 2018.

Goals: A. La Mantia (45+1'), M. Mancosu (68').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.