Hellas Verona 0–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Hellas Verona

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

N. Fagioli 82'

4/4/2026

Serie A · Round 31Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona36%

×Draw29%

Fiorentina34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.08

Hellas Verona

1.12

Fiorentina

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

0.80

creates per match

1.11

1.05

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Fiorentina

1.11

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Fiorentina

1.44

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Fiorentina+0.05on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

66%

Hellas Verona or Fiorentina

71%

Draw or Fiorentina

64%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

15%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

67%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

31%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

10%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

66%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

29%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

51%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

36%

level

29%

Fiorentina scores more

34%

Hellas Verona at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Roberto Gagliardini

59'

R. Piccoli← G. Fabbian

67'

A. Sarr← G. Orban

75'

D. Bradaric← D. Oyegoke

75'

T. Suslov← A. Bernede

76'

J. Fazzini← M. Kean

76'

L. Balbo← R. Gosens

79'

Victor Nelsson

82'

N. Fagioli↳ J. Harrison

84'

85'

85'

88'

90'

D. Mosquera← V. Nelsson

90'

E. Kospo← P. Comuzzo

90'

M. Brescianini← N. Fagioli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasFiorentina

Overview

49%Possession51%

21Total Shots5

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.36

9Corners1

15Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots5

8On Target1

10Off Target2

3Blocked2

9Inside Box2

12Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

397Total Passes431

325Accurate Passes351

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

1.02Goals Prevented1.02

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0