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Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
9/18/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 7Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Fiorentina52%
×Draw24%
Hellas Verona24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.67
Hellas Verona
1.06

Fiorentina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.08
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
76%
Fiorentina or Hellas Verona
76%
Draw or Hellas Verona
48%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
28%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
81%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
50%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
23%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
65%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
29%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
68%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fiorentina scores more
52%
level
24%
Hellas Verona scores more
24%

Fiorentina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona

Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 2-0 in Serie A on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.