Hellas Verona 2–1 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Hellas Verona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Crotone

F. Dimarco 25'

N. Kalinić 16'

Junior Messias 55'

1/10/2021

Serie A · Round 17Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hellas Verona56%

×Draw21%

Crotone23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.25

Hellas Verona

2.05

Crotone

1.25

Hellas Verona creates 64% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 23 away

1.23

creates per match

1.04

1.46

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Hellas Verona

1.23

Crotone

1.04

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.46

Crotone

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

77%

Hellas Verona or Crotone

79%

Draw or Crotone

44%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

33%

Crotone wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

87%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

61%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

33%

Crotone 1+ goals

71%

Crotone 2+ goals

36%

Crotone 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

71%

Crotone (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 98 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.23 + Crotone defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.05

Crotone attack 1.04 + Hellas Verona defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

56%

level

21%

Crotone scores more

23%

Hellas Verona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

F. Dimarco

Hellas Verona · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Federico Ceccherini

16'

N. Kalinić↳ A. Barák

25'

F. Dimarco↳ M. Zaccagni

42'

Matteo Lovato

46'

P. Dawidowicz← F. Ceccherini

46'

S. Nwankwo← Eduardo Henrique

46'

Pedro Pereira← S. Molina

47'

Koffi Djidji

52'

Giangiacomo Magnani

55'

Junior Messias↳ Pedro Pereira

57'

Arkadiusz Reca

63'

S. Di Carmine← N. Kalinić

63'

K. Günter← G. Magnani

75'

E. Colley← M. Zaccagni

78'

D. Drăguş← E. Rivière

89'

Pedro Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasCrotone

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots9

6Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked4

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

329Total Passes450

225Accurate Passes343

68%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Crotone

Hellas Verona beat Crotone 2-1 in Serie A on January 10, 2021.

Goals: N. Kalinić (16'), F. Dimarco (25'), Junior Messias (55').

Crotone controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.

Hellas Verona vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Crotone