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Crotone vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
M. Firenze 85'
S. Colombatto 57'
L. Henderson 14'
9/22/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 4Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Crotone43%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.11

Crotone creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.48
Hellas Verona
1.21

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Hellas Verona
1.26

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
70%
Crotone or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
57%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
40%
Crotone 3+ goals
16%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
67%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
30%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
58%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.48 + Hellas Verona defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hellas Verona attack 1.21 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crotone scores more
43%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
30%

Crotone at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
L. Henderson↳ K. Laribi
46'
A. Stoian← B. Martella
53'
Antonio Caracciolo
57'
S. Colombatto↳ Ľ. Tupta
61'
Alberto Almici
61'
A. Ragusa← K. Laribi
62'
Davide Faraoni
65'
C. Spinelli← S. Nwankwo
69'
K. Cissé← Ľ. Tupta
73'
A. Budimir← M. Sampirisi
79'
Lee Seung-Woo← Ryder Matos
85'
M. Firenze
88'
Ahmed Benali
88'
Seung-Woo Lee

Possession

51%Crotone

Shots

18Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneHellas
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots15
7Corners5
9Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots15
3On Target5
15Off Target10
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
0Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Serie B: Crotone 1–2 Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Crotone 2-1 in Serie B on September 22, 2018.

Goals: L. Henderson (14'), S. Colombatto (57'), M. Firenze (85').

Crotone controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.