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Hellas Verona vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cremonese
Cremonese
A. Caracciolo 3'
M. Arini 32'
11/2/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 11Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hellas Verona41%
×Draw26%
Cremonese33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.40
Cremonese
1.22

Hellas Verona creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 116 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.60
Cremonese
1.24

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.20
Cremonese
1.20

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
67%
Hellas Verona or Cremonese
74%
Draw or Cremonese
59%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
19%
Cremonese wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
75%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
41%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
17%
Cremonese 1+ goals
70%
Cremonese 2+ goals
34%
Cremonese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
56%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.60 + Cremonese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cremonese attack 1.24 + Hellas Verona defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
41%
level
26%
Cremonese scores more
33%

Hellas Verona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Caracciolo↳ S. Colombatto
18'
Antonio Caracciolo
32'
Antonino Ragusa
32'
M. Arini↳ G. Perrulli
50'
Karamoko Cissé
57'
Leandro Greco
59'
S. Di Carmine← K. Cissé
59'
P. Dawidowicz← S. Calvano
60'
D. Croce← M. Arini
64'
Daniele Croce
71'
A. Piccolo← G. Perrulli
76'
K. Laribi← M. Zaccagni
76'
I. Marconi← Claiton
86'
Antonio Piccolo

Possession

48%Hellas

Shots

8Hellas

Statistics

HellasCremonese
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots8
4Corners7
14Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target3
4Off Target5
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Cremonese

Hellas Verona and Cremonese drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 2, 2018.

Goals: A. Caracciolo (3'), M. Arini (32').

Cremonese controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.