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Cremonese vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
4/30/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 32Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Cremonese41%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.40
Hellas Verona
1.21

Cremonese creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.16
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

Cremonese
1.38
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

Cremonese-0.21scores less
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
68%
Cremonese or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
59%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
19%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
75%
Cremonese 2+ goals
41%
Cremonese 3+ goals
17%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
70%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
34%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
56%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.16 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + Cremonese defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cremonese scores more
41%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
32%

Cremonese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Hellas Verona

Cremonese and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.