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Cremonese vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
3/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cremonese46%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.36
Hellas Verona
0.98

Cremonese creates 39% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Hellas Verona
1.33

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
73%
Cremonese or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
54%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
21%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
74%
Cremonese 2+ goals
39%
Cremonese 3+ goals
16%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
62%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
26%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
63%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cremonese scores more
46%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
27%

Cremonese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Hellas Verona

Cremonese and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.