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Hellas Verona vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
12/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 18Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hellas Verona45%
×Draw26%
Cittadella28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.43
Cittadella
1.07

Hellas Verona creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 134 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.67
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.22
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
72%
Hellas Verona or Cittadella
74%
Draw or Cittadella
55%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
22%
Cittadella wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
76%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
42%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
17%
Cittadella 1+ goals
66%
Cittadella 2+ goals
29%
Cittadella 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
62%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.67 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Hellas Verona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
45%
level
26%
Cittadella scores more
28%

Hellas Verona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Cittadella

Hellas Verona beat Cittadella 4-0 in Serie B on December 27, 2018.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.