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Cittadella vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Cittadella
Cittadella
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
5/4/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 37Stadio Piercesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cittadella42%
×Draw28%
Hellas Verona31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cittadella
1.30
Hellas Verona
1.08

Cittadella creates 20% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cittadella
1.27
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Cittadella
1.10
Hellas Verona
1.33

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw
69%
Cittadella or Hellas Verona
72%
Draw or Hellas Verona
58%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+
19%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals
73%
Cittadella 2+ goals
37%
Cittadella 3+ goals
14%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
66%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
29%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)
57%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cittadella scores more
42%
level
28%
Hellas Verona scores more
31%

Cittadella at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cittadella vs Hellas Verona

Cittadella beat Hellas Verona 3-0 in Serie B on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Piercesare Tombolato in Cittadella.