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Hellas Verona vs Carpi — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Carpi
Carpi
9/16/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 3Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hellas Verona53%
×Draw23%
Carpi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.86
Carpi
1.17

Hellas Verona creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.67
Carpi
1.11

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.22
Carpi
2.06

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Carpi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Carpi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
76%
Hellas Verona or Carpi
77%
Draw or Carpi
47%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
30%
Carpi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
84%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
55%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
28%
Carpi 1+ goals
69%
Carpi 2+ goals
33%
Carpi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
69%
Carpi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Carpi away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.67 + Carpi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.86

Carpi attack 1.11 + Hellas Verona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
53%
level
23%
Carpi scores more
24%

Hellas Verona at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Hellas Verona 4–1 Carpi

Hellas Verona beat Carpi 4-1 in Serie B on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.