Carpi 1–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carpi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hellas Verona

2/2/2019

Serie B · Round 22Stadio Sandro Cabassi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Carpi33%

×Draw27%

Hellas Verona40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarpiExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.36

Carpi

1.20

Hellas Verona

1.36

Hellas Verona creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.06

creates per match

1.06

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Carpi

1.06

Hellas Verona

1.06

allows per match

Carpi

1.67

Hellas Verona

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carpi+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carpi ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Carpi or draw

60%

Carpi or Hellas Verona

73%

Draw or Hellas Verona

67%

Winning margin

Carpi wins by 2+

14%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Carpi 1+ goals

70%

Carpi 2+ goals

34%

Carpi 3+ goals

12%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

74%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

39%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Carpi (draw refunded)

45%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carpi at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carpi attack 1.06 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Carpi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Carpi scores more

33%

level

27%

Hellas Verona scores more

40%

Hellas Verona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff