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Hellas Verona vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
G. Pazzini 73' (pen), 52'
E. Torregrossa 55'
A. Caracciolo 22'
10/9/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 8Marc Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hellas Verona43%
×Draw26%
Brescia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.44
Brescia
1.18

Hellas Verona creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 118 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.60
Brescia
1.16

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.20
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
69%
Hellas Verona or Brescia
74%
Draw or Brescia
57%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
21%
Brescia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
76%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
42%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
18%
Brescia 1+ goals
69%
Brescia 2+ goals
33%
Brescia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
58%
Brescia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.60 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brescia attack 1.16 + Hellas Verona defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
43%
level
26%
Brescia scores more
31%

Hellas Verona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Ernesto Torregrossa
17'
Arturo Calabresi
18'
Giampaolo Pazzini
22'
A. Caracciolo
46'
S. Ganz← D. Luppi
46'
J. Gómez Taleb← M. Valoti
52'
G. Pazzini
55'
E. Torregrossa
63'
S. Rosso← E. Torregrossa
64'
G. Camara← G. Crociata
71'
Giampiero Pinzi
72'
Igor Bubnjić
73'
G. PazziniPenalty
82'
Marco Fossati
90+1'
M. Zaccagni← L. Siligardi

Possession

59%Hellas

Shots

18Hellas

Statistics

HellasBrescia
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots4
5Corners2
16Fouls20
Shots
18Total Shots4
8On Target3
10Off Target1
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls20
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Brescia

Hellas Verona and Brescia drew 2-2 in Serie B on October 9, 2016.

Goals: A. Caracciolo (22'), G. Pazzini (52', 73' pen), E. Torregrossa (55').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Marc Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.