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Brescia vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
M. Zaccagni 35'
3/5/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brescia41%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.19

Brescia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 19 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.48
Hellas Verona
1.21

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Hellas Verona
1.26

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
67%
Brescia or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
59%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
19%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
75%
Brescia 2+ goals
40%
Brescia 3+ goals
16%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
70%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
33%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
56%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Hellas Verona defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hellas Verona attack 1.21 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brescia scores more
41%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
33%

Brescia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Matteo Bianchetti
35'
M. Zaccagni↳ M. Bianchetti
36'
Bruno Zuculini
59'
F. Bonazzoli← S. Mauri
63'
F. Zuculini← M. Fares
67'
G. Pinzi← J. DallOglio
68'
M. Fossati← M. Zaccagni
76'
E. Torregrossa← J. Untersee
77'
Federico Bonazzoli
83'
P. Cappelluzzo← G. Pazzini
90'
Pierluigi Cappelluzzo

Possession

50%Brescia

Shots

7Brescia

Statistics

BresciaHellas
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots10
5Corners3
18Fouls21
Shots
7Total Shots10
3On Target5
4Off Target5
Passing
50%Possession50%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls21
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Brescia vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Brescia 1-0 in Serie B on March 5, 2017.

Goals: M. Zaccagni (35').

Brescia controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.