Brescia 4–2 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brescia

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Hellas Verona

E. Torregrossa 69'

A. Donnarumma 56', 38'

S. Tonali 43'

G. Pazzini 80'

A. Caracciolo 51'

11/11/2018

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brescia41%

×Draw27%

Hellas Verona33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.19

Brescia

1.37

Hellas Verona

1.19

Brescia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 19 away

1.48

creates per match

1.21

1.17

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Brescia

1.48

Hellas Verona

1.21

allows per match

Brescia

1.17

Hellas Verona

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

67%

Brescia or Hellas Verona

73%

Draw or Hellas Verona

59%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

19%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

75%

Brescia 2+ goals

40%

Brescia 3+ goals

16%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

70%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

33%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

56%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Hellas Verona defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hellas Verona attack 1.21 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brescia scores more

41%

level

27%

Hellas Verona scores more

33%

Brescia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

32'

34'

38'

43'

46'

P. Dawidowicz← L. Henderson

51'

A. Caracciolo↳ S. Colombatto

56'

A. Donnarumma↳ S. Tonali

58'

Paweł Dawidowicz

59'

Ryder Matos← K. Laribi

69'

E. Torregrossa↳ N. Špalek

70'

J. Dall'Oglio← E. Ndoj

76'

Ernesto Torregrossa

80'

G. Pazzini↳ Alan Empereur

83'

M. Zaccagni← A. Crescenzi

85'

A. Martinelli← A. Donnarumma

89'

Aleš Matějů

90'

D. Gastaldello← N. Špalek

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BresciaHellas

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots6

3Corners3

16Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target3

6Off Target3

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0