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Hellas Verona vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
10/16/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 10Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona28%
×Draw28%
AC Milan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
0.98
AC Milan
1.31

AC Milan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
56%
Hellas Verona or AC Milan
72%
Draw or AC Milan
72%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
10%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
62%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
26%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
8%
AC Milan 1+ goals
73%
AC Milan 2+ goals
38%
AC Milan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
39%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
28%
level
28%
AC Milan scores more
44%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs AC Milan

AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 2-1 in Serie A on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.