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AC Milan vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
6/4/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 38Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AC Milan50%
×Draw25%
Hellas Verona25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.65
Hellas Verona
1.09

AC Milan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
75%
AC Milan or Hellas Verona
75%
Draw or Hellas Verona
50%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
27%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
81%
AC Milan 2+ goals
49%
AC Milan 3+ goals
23%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
66%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
30%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
67%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AC Milan scores more
50%
level
25%
Hellas Verona scores more
25%

AC Milan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Hellas Verona

AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 3-1 in Serie A on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.