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Hellas Kagran vs Donau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
FT
1 – 3
Donau
Donau
8/27/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 2Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hellas Kagran28%
×Draw23%
Donau49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Kagran
1.33
Donau
1.82

Donau creates 37% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hellas Kagran
1.21
Donau
1.67

allows per match

Hellas Kagran
1.97
Donau
1.45

finishing

Hellas Kagran+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Kagran ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hellas Kagran or draw
51%
Hellas Kagran or Donau
77%
Draw or Donau
72%

Winning margin

Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
12%
Donau wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
74%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
38%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
15%
Donau 1+ goals
84%
Donau 2+ goals
54%
Donau 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
37%
Donau (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Kagran at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Kagran attack 1.21 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Donau attack 1.67 + Hellas Kagran defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hellas Kagran scores more
28%
level
23%
Donau scores more
49%

Donau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Hellas Kagran 1–3 Donau

Donau beat Hellas Kagran 3-1 in Landesliga - Wien on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena in Wien.