Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Donau vs Hellas Kagran — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Donau
Donau
FT
5 – 1
Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
3/9/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 17Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Donau58%
×Draw20%
Hellas Kagran22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
2.19
Hellas Kagran
1.27

Donau creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Donau
1.65
Hellas Kagran
1.53

allows per match

Donau
1.02
Hellas Kagran
2.73

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
Hellas Kagran+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Hellas Kagran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Donau or draw
78%
Donau or Hellas Kagran
80%
Draw or Hellas Kagran
42%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
36%
Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
89%
Donau 2+ goals
64%
Donau 3+ goals
37%
Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
72%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
36%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
73%
Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Hellas Kagran away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + Hellas Kagran defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hellas Kagran attack 1.53 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Donau scores more
58%
level
20%
Hellas Kagran scores more
22%

Donau at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Donau 5–1 Hellas Kagran

Donau beat Hellas Kagran 5-1 in Landesliga - Wien on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Donau in Wien.