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Heimstetten vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
9/30/2022Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 14Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Heimstetten23%
×Draw21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
1.25
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.06

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
1.73
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Heimstetten
2.02
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
44%
Heimstetten or FC Wurzburger Kickers
79%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
9%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
71%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
36%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
13%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
87%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
61%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
29%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 1.73 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Heimstetten defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heimstetten scores more
23%
level
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
56%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Heimstetten 0–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Heimstetten 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.