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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Heimstetten — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heimstetten
Heimstetten
4/22/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 33AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers72%
×Draw16%
Heimstetten12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.52
Heimstetten
0.92

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 174% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.76
Heimstetten
1.08

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76
Heimstetten
2.29

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Heimstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Heimstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
88%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Heimstetten
84%
Draw or Heimstetten
28%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
50%
Heimstetten wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
92%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
71%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
45%
Heimstetten 1+ goals
60%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
23%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
86%
Heimstetten (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Heimstetten away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Heimstetten defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.52

Heimstetten attack 1.08 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
72%
level
16%
Heimstetten scores more
12%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Heimstetten

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Heimstetten 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.