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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
4/27/2019League OneLeague One · Round 7Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring45%
×Draw27%
Guizhou Zhicheng28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.41
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.06

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 33% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 41 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.45
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
72%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Guizhou Zhicheng
73%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
55%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
22%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
76%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
41%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
17%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
65%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
29%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
45%
level
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
28%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-1 in League One on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.