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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
8/17/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng41%
×Draw27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.35
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.15

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
68%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
73%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
59%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
19%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
15%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
68%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
32%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
56%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
41%
level
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
32%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guizhou Zhicheng 2–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2-0 in League One on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.