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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — League One 2026

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
9/14/2025League OneLeague One · Round 22Dingnan Football Youth Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring37%
×Draw26%
Chongqing Tongliang Long37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.35
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.47
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.63

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.23

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Chongqing Tongliang Long →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
63%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Chongqing Tongliang Long
74%
Draw or Chongqing Tongliang Long
63%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
17%
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
74%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
39%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
15%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
74%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
39%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
50%
Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.08 · 121 matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.47 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.63 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
37%
level
26%
Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
37%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 3-1 in League One on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Dingnan Football Youth Training Center in Dingnan.