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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2026

Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chongqing Tongliang Long
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
3/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 2Tongliang Long Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chongqing Tongliang Long50%
×Draw27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.45
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
0.90

Chongqing Tongliang Long creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.50
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.67
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Chongqing Tongliang Long+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Tongliang Long ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw
77%
Chongqing Tongliang Long or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
73%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
50%

Winning margin

Chongqing Tongliang Long wins by 2+
25%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1+ goals
77%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2+ goals
42%
Chongqing Tongliang Long 3+ goals
18%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
59%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
23%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Tongliang Long (draw refunded)
68%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 1.50 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Chongqing Tongliang Long defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chongqing Tongliang Long scores more
50%
level
27%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
23%

Chongqing Tongliang Long at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chongqing Tongliang Long will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Chongqing Tongliang Long and Heilongjiang Lava Spring drew 1-1 in League One on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tongliang Long Stadium in Chongqing.