Heidenheim U19 3–2 Schalke 04 U19: Result & Stats

Heidenheim U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Schalke 04 U19

4/12/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Heidenheim U1933%

×Draw22%

Schalke 04 U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.86

Heidenheim U19

1.57

Schalke 04 U19

1.86

Schalke 04 U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

1.91

creates per match

1.93

1.79

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.91

Schalke 04 U19

1.93

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.79

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

55%

Heidenheim U19 or Schalke 04 U19

78%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

67%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

16%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

79%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

46%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

21%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

84%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

55%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.91 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Schalke 04 U19 attack 1.93 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

45%

Schalke 04 U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff