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Hegelmann II vs Be1 NFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
4/5/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Raudondvario stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hegelmann II29%
×Draw26%
Be1 NFA46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann II
1.14
Be1 NFA
1.51

Be1 NFA creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hegelmann II
1.24
Be1 NFA
1.38

allows per match

Hegelmann II
1.65
Be1 NFA
1.04

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw
54%
Hegelmann II or Be1 NFA
74%
Draw or Be1 NFA
71%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+
11%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals
68%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
32%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
11%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
78%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
44%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
39%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.24 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Hegelmann II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hegelmann II scores more
29%
level
26%
Be1 NFA scores more
46%

Be1 NFA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hegelmann II vs Be1 NFA

Be1 NFA beat Hegelmann II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Raudondvario stadionas in Raudondvario.