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Be1 NFA vs Hegelmann II — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
10/17/20251 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Be1 NFA57%
×Draw22%
Hegelmann II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.92
Hegelmann II
1.08

Be1 NFA creates 78% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
Hegelmann II
1.11

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
Hegelmann II
2.13

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Hegelmann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
79%
Be1 NFA or Hegelmann II
78%
Draw or Hegelmann II
43%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
33%
Hegelmann II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
85%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
57%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
30%
Hegelmann II 1+ goals
66%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
29%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
73%
Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Hegelmann II away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Hegelmann II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hegelmann II attack 1.11 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
57%
level
22%
Hegelmann II scores more
21%

Be1 NFA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be1 NFA vs Hegelmann II

Hegelmann II beat Be1 NFA 3-1 in 1 Lyga on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.