Hegelmann II 2–0 Banga II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Hegelmann II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banga II

L. Jonaitis 55'

D. Pasilys 28'

8/25/2024

1 Lyga · Round 20LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hegelmann II46%

×Draw24%

Banga II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hegelmann IIExpected goals in this matchBanga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.30

Hegelmann II

1.68

Banga II

1.30

Hegelmann II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

1.24

creates per match

0.95

1.65

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Hegelmann II

1.24

Banga II

0.95

allows per match

Hegelmann II

1.65

Banga II

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

Banga II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw

70%

Hegelmann II or Banga II

76%

Draw or Banga II

54%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+

24%

Banga II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals

81%

Hegelmann II 2+ goals

50%

Hegelmann II 3+ goals

24%

Banga II 1+ goals

73%

Banga II 2+ goals

37%

Banga II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)

61%

Banga II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.24 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Banga II attack 0.95 + Hegelmann II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hegelmann II scores more

46%

level

24%

Banga II scores more

30%

Hegelmann II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hegelmann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

D. Pasilys

37'

M. Sendzikas

46'

B. Juska← B. Juska

55'

L. Jonaitis

62'

L. Kojic← K. Olsauskas

62'

Joao Gabriel← Joao Gabriel

62'

A. Straksys← A. Straksys

67'

V. Bockus← V. Bockus

75'

A. Armalas← A. Armalas

79'

M. Bertasius← M. Bertasius

84'

S. Gedziunas← S. Gedziunas

84'

K. Teresius← K. Teresius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff