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Banga II vs Hegelmann II — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga II
Banga II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
4/1/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Banga II40%
×Draw24%
Hegelmann II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga II
1.63
Hegelmann II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 38 away

creates per match

Banga II
1.14
Hegelmann II
1.11

allows per match

Banga II
2.02
Hegelmann II
2.13

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par
Hegelmann II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Hegelmann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Banga II or draw
63%
Banga II or Hegelmann II
76%
Draw or Hegelmann II
60%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+
20%
Hegelmann II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals
80%
Banga II 2+ goals
48%
Banga II 3+ goals
22%
Hegelmann II 1+ goals
79%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
46%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)
52%
Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Hegelmann II away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Hegelmann II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hegelmann II attack 1.11 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Banga II scores more
40%
level
24%
Hegelmann II scores more
37%

Banga II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Banga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Banga II 1–3 Hegelmann II

Hegelmann II beat Banga II 3-1 in 1 Lyga on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.