Heeslinger SC 2–1 Bremer Sv: Result & Stats

Heeslinger SC

FT

2 – 1

Bremer Sv

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Rasenplatz A-Platz Zeven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heeslinger SC32%

×Draw23%

Bremer Sv45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heeslinger SCExpected goals in this matchBremer Sv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.77

Heeslinger SC

1.47

Bremer Sv

1.77

Bremer Sv creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.80

creates per match

1.14

2.40

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Heeslinger SC

0.80

Bremer Sv

1.14

allows per match

Heeslinger SC

2.40

Bremer Sv

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heeslinger SC+0.00on par

Bremer Sv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heeslinger SC ↓

Bremer Sv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Heeslinger SC or draw

55%

Heeslinger SC or Bremer Sv

77%

Draw or Bremer Sv

68%

Winning margin

Heeslinger SC wins by 2+

15%

Bremer Sv wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Heeslinger SC 1+ goals

77%

Heeslinger SC 2+ goals

43%

Heeslinger SC 3+ goals

18%

Bremer Sv 1+ goals

83%

Bremer Sv 2+ goals

53%

Bremer Sv 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Heeslinger SC (draw refunded)

42%

Bremer Sv (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heeslinger SC at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Bremer Sv away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heeslinger SC attack 0.80 + Bremer Sv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bremer Sv attack 1.14 + Heeslinger SC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Heeslinger SC scores more

32%

level

23%

Bremer Sv scores more

45%

Bremer Sv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bremer Sv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff