Bremer SV 0–1 Heeslinger SC: Result & Stats

Bremer SV

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Heeslinger SC

7/19/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bremer SV22%

×Draw18%

Heeslinger SC60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bremer SVExpected goals in this matchHeeslinger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.63

Bremer SV

1.56

Heeslinger SC

2.63

Heeslinger SC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

2.50

2.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bremer SV

1.63

Heeslinger SC

2.50

allows per match

Bremer SV

2.75

Heeslinger SC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par

Heeslinger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Heeslinger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw

40%

Bremer SV or Heeslinger SC

82%

Draw or Heeslinger SC

78%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+

10%

Heeslinger SC wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals

79%

Bremer SV 2+ goals

46%

Bremer SV 3+ goals

21%

Heeslinger SC 1+ goals

93%

Heeslinger SC 2+ goals

73%

Heeslinger SC 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)

27%

Heeslinger SC (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Heeslinger SC away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.63 + Heeslinger SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heeslinger SC attack 2.50 + Bremer SV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bremer SV scores more

22%

level

18%

Heeslinger SC scores more

60%

Heeslinger SC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Heeslinger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff