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Heerenveen U21 vs Almere City II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
FT
2 – 4
Almere City II
Almere City II
11/20/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 10Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2128%
×Draw22%
Almere City II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen U21
1.41
Almere City II
1.96

Almere City II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

creates per match

Heerenveen U21
1.20
Almere City II
2.03

allows per match

Heerenveen U21
1.90
Almere City II
1.62

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw
50%
Heerenveen U21 or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
72%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
12%
Almere City II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
76%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
41%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
17%
Almere City II 1+ goals
86%
Almere City II 2+ goals
58%
Almere City II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
36%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Almere City II attack 2.03 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more
28%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
50%

Almere City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Heerenveen U21 2–4 Almere City II

Almere City II beat Heerenveen U21 4-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Skoatterwâld in Heerenveen.