Heerenveen U21 0–2 Almere City II: Result & Stats

Heerenveen U21

FT

0 – 2

Almere City II

10/3/2020

U21 Divisie 1 · Round 6Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2128%

×Draw22%

Almere City II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heerenveen U21Expected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.96

Heerenveen U21

1.41

Almere City II

1.96

Almere City II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

1.20

creates per match

2.03

1.90

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Heerenveen U21

1.20

Almere City II

2.03

allows per match

Heerenveen U21

1.90

Almere City II

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw

50%

Heerenveen U21 or Almere City II

78%

Draw or Almere City II

72%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+

12%

Almere City II wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals

76%

Heerenveen U21 2+ goals

41%

Heerenveen U21 3+ goals

17%

Almere City II 1+ goals

86%

Almere City II 2+ goals

58%

Almere City II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)

36%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Almere City II attack 2.03 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more

28%

level

22%

Almere City II scores more

50%

Almere City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff