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Heerenveen U21 vs ADO Den Haag II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
FT
1 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
2/12/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 12Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2139%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen U21
1.65
ADO Den Haag II
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 55 away

creates per match

Heerenveen U21
1.20
ADO Den Haag II
1.36

allows per match

Heerenveen U21
1.90
ADO Den Haag II
2.11

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw
62%
Heerenveen U21 or ADO Den Haag II
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
61%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
20%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
81%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
49%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
23%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
80%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
48%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
51%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more
39%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
38%

Heerenveen U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heerenveen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heerenveen U21 vs ADO Den Haag II

Heerenveen U21 and ADO Den Haag II drew 1-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Skoatterwâld in Heerenveen.