Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ADO Den Haag II vs Heerenveen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
CANC
14:00
Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
11/21/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 11Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ADO Den Haag II49%
×Draw22%
Heerenveen U2129%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
1.94
Heerenveen U21
1.46

ADO Den Haag II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 9 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
Heerenveen U21
1.00

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
Heerenveen U21
2.00

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Heerenveen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
71%
ADO Den Haag II or Heerenveen U21
78%
Draw or Heerenveen U21
51%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
27%
Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
58%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
30%
Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
77%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
43%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
63%
Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

Heerenveen U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + Heerenveen U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.00 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
49%
level
22%
Heerenveen U21 scores more
29%

ADO Den Haag II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: ADO Den Haag II host Heerenveen U21

November 21, 2020: ADO Den Haag II take on Heerenveen U21 in U21 Divisie 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

ADO Den Haag II host Heerenveen U21 at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.