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Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
8/19/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hebei Zhongji37%
×Draw24%
Changchun Yatai39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.55
Changchun Yatai
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
61%
Hebei Zhongji or Changchun Yatai
76%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
63%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
18%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
79%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
46%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
20%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
80%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
47%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
49%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
37%
level
24%
Changchun Yatai scores more
39%

Changchun Yatai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Hebei Zhongji 1–7 Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Hebei Zhongji 7-1 in Super League on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.