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Changchun Yatai vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
11/21/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Wuyuan River Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Changchun Yatai55%
×Draw22%
Hebei Zhongji23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.89
Hebei Zhongji
1.14

Changchun Yatai creates 66% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 67 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
77%
Changchun Yatai or Hebei Zhongji
78%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
45%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
31%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
85%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
56%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
29%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
68%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
32%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
71%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
55%
level
22%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
23%

Changchun Yatai at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Changchun Yatai 4–1 Hebei Zhongji

Changchun Yatai beat Hebei Zhongji 4-1 in Super League on November 21, 2022.

The match was played at Wuyuan River Stadium in Haikou.