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Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
12/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hebei Zhongji29%
×Draw23%
Beijing Guoan48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.31
Beijing Guoan
1.75

Beijing Guoan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
52%
Hebei Zhongji or Beijing Guoan
77%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
71%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
12%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
73%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
38%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
14%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
52%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
38%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
29%
level
23%
Beijing Guoan scores more
48%

Beijing Guoan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Hebei Zhongji 0–4 Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan beat Hebei Zhongji 4-0 in Super League on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.