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Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
7/16/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Beijing Guoan65%
×Draw19%
Hebei Zhongji16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.29
Hebei Zhongji
1.05

Beijing Guoan creates 118% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 67 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Hebei Zhongji
0.94

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Hebei Zhongji
2.34

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Hebei Zhongji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
84%
Beijing Guoan or Hebei Zhongji
81%
Draw or Hebei Zhongji
35%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
42%
Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
90%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
66%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
40%
Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
65%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
28%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
80%
Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
65%
level
19%
Hebei Zhongji scores more
16%

Beijing Guoan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Guoan 2–1 Hebei Zhongji

Beijing Guoan beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 in Super League on July 16, 2021.

The match was played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Jiangyin.