Hebei Kungfu 4–0 Wuxi Wugou: Result & Stats

Hebei Kungfu

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Wuxi Wugou

5/28/2023

League One · Round 7Yutong International Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hebei Kungfu53%

×Draw25%

Wuxi Wugou23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebei KungfuExpected goals in this matchWuxi Wugou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.99

Hebei Kungfu

1.64

Wuxi Wugou

0.99

Hebei Kungfu creates 66% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

1.33

creates per match

1.13

0.86

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu

1.33

Wuxi Wugou

1.13

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu

0.86

Wuxi Wugou

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Wuxi Wugou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw

77%

Hebei Kungfu or Wuxi Wugou

75%

Draw or Wuxi Wugou

47%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

28%

Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

81%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

49%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

23%

Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals

63%

Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals

26%

Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

70%

Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 70 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.33 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.13 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more

53%

level

25%

Wuxi Wugou scores more

23%

Hebei Kungfu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff