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Hebar II vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
4 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
3/26/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 26Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II60%
×Draw21%
Granit Vladaya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
2.07
Granit Vladaya
1.06

Hebar II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
81%
Hebar II or Granit Vladaya
79%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
40%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
37%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
87%
Hebar II 2+ goals
61%
Hebar II 3+ goals
34%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
65%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
29%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
76%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.07

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hebar II scores more
60%
level
21%
Granit Vladaya scores more
19%

Hebar II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar II 4 – 0 Granit Vladaya

Hebar II beat Granit Vladaya 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.