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Granit Vladaya vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
0 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
9/11/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 7Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Granit Vladaya44%
×Draw27%
Hebar II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.38
Hebar II
1.07

Granit Vladaya creates 29% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
71%
Granit Vladaya or Hebar II
73%
Draw or Hebar II
56%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
21%
Hebar II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
75%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
40%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
16%
Hebar II 1+ goals
66%
Hebar II 2+ goals
29%
Hebar II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
60%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
44%
level
27%
Hebar II scores more
29%

Granit Vladaya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Hebar II

Granit Vladaya and Hebar II drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.