Hebar II 0–4 FK Minyor Pernik: Result & Stats

Hebar II

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

FK Minyor Pernik

4/13/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 29Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II31%

×Draw26%

FK Minyor Pernik43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar IIExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.44

Hebar II

1.20

FK Minyor Pernik

1.44

FK Minyor Pernik creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 45 away

1.51

creates per match

1.49

1.38

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Hebar II

1.51

FK Minyor Pernik

1.49

allows per match

Hebar II

1.38

FK Minyor Pernik

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw

57%

Hebar II or FK Minyor Pernik

74%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

69%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+

13%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals

70%

Hebar II 2+ goals

34%

Hebar II 3+ goals

12%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

76%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

42%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)

42%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hebar II scores more

31%

level

26%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

43%

FK Minyor Pernik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff