FK Minyor Pernik 3–1 Hebar II: Result & Stats

FK Minyor Pernik

FT

3 – 1

Hebar II

9/23/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik68%

×Draw21%

Hebar II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Minyor PernikExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.64

FK Minyor Pernik

1.93

Hebar II

0.64

FK Minyor Pernik creates 202% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

2.25

creates per match

0.55

0.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik

2.25

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik

0.73

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw

88%

FK Minyor Pernik or Hebar II

79%

Draw or Hebar II

32%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

42%

Hebar II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

85%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

57%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

30%

Hebar II 1+ goals

47%

Hebar II 2+ goals

14%

Hebar II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

86%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hebar II attack 0.55 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

68%

level

21%

Hebar II scores more

12%

FK Minyor Pernik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff